Air Force
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
33  Gillespie Carina JR 19:42
91  Jaci Smith SO 20:00
140  Lindy Long SR 20:09
260  Samantha Skold SR 20:28
470  Katherine Burnham JR 20:53
742  Lindsey Blanks FR 21:15
990  Giulianna Vessa JR 21:31
1,318  Shanna Burns SO 21:51
2,078  Swathi Samuel FR 22:38
National Rank #23 of 344
Mountain Region Rank #5 of 20
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 40.1%
Most Likely Finish 5th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.5%
Top 10 at Nationals 3.8%
Top 20 at Nationals 26.0%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 76.7%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Gillespie Carina Jaci Smith Lindy Long Samantha Skold Katherine Burnham Lindsey Blanks Giulianna Vessa Shanna Burns Swathi Samuel
Joe Piane Invitational (Blue) 09/30 728 19:48 20:31 20:16 20:37 21:17 21:34 21:58
Rocky Mountain Shootout 10/01 22:49
ISU adidas Pre Nationals (Blue) 10/15 573 19:36 19:58 20:11 20:25 21:14 21:15 22:01
Mountain West Championship 10/28 421 19:32 19:50 19:47 20:20 20:33 21:13 21:42 21:41 22:32
Mountain Region Championships 11/11 467 19:34 19:36 19:58 20:28 20:45 20:57 21:25





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 40.1% 18.1 460 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.5 1.6 2.0 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.7 2.2 3.0 2.8 2.3 2.2 2.7 1.8 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.2
Region Championship 100% 4.6 145 6.1 15.2 25.2 30.2 17.2 4.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Gillespie Carina 95.8% 40.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.9 0.8 1.5 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.7 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.0 1.6 1.4
Jaci Smith 53.5% 80.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2
Lindy Long 44.4% 104.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Samantha Skold 40.2% 158.9
Katherine Burnham 40.1% 213.2
Lindsey Blanks 40.1% 238.1
Giulianna Vessa 40.1% 246.6


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Gillespie Carina 8.0 1.9 3.9 6.0 7.0 8.1 6.8 8.5 8.5 9.4 8.1 5.2 5.3 4.1 3.9 2.5 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.2
Jaci Smith 17.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.2 3.0 3.1 3.8 4.4 4.2 4.8 5.1 4.9 5.4 4.2 5.6 4.7 4.5 3.9 4.1 3.6 3.1 3.1
Lindy Long 22.9 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.0 1.9 2.3 2.9 3.4 3.6 4.4 3.2 4.2 3.8 4.0 3.5 3.5 4.4 4.8 3.5
Samantha Skold 36.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.4 2.0 2.1
Katherine Burnham 55.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Lindsey Blanks 75.5
Giulianna Vessa 90.3




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 6.1% 100.0% 6.1 6.1 2
3 15.2% 92.1% 3.0 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.3 1.2 14.0 3
4 25.2% 67.2% 0.9 1.3 2.1 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.6 0.6 8.3 16.9 4
5 30.2% 7.5% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.5 28.0 2.3 5
6 17.2% 4.9% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 16.4 0.9 6
7 4.3% 4.3 7
8 1.3% 1.3 8
9 0.5% 0.5 9
10 0.1% 0.1 10
11 0.1% 0.1 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
Total 100% 40.1% 6.1 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.6 3.9 3.4 2.8 2.7 2.1 1.5 1.1 1.2 2.9 59.9 6.1 34.0




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Boise State 60.0% 1.0 0.6
Florida 27.8% 1.0 0.3
Furman 25.1% 1.0 0.3
Virginia 24.8% 1.0 0.2
Missouri 24.4% 1.0 0.2
Eastern Kentucky 12.1% 1.0 0.1
Louisville 9.3% 1.0 0.1
Alabama 7.3% 1.0 0.1
Vanderbilt 6.1% 1.0 0.1
Rice 5.9% 1.0 0.1
Kansas 5.6% 1.0 0.1
Ohio State 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Texas 2.2% 1.0 0.0
Colorado St. 2.1% 2.0 0.0
Butler 1.7% 1.0 0.0
Oklahoma 1.0% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Brown 0.6% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Elon 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Clemson 0.1% 2.0 0.0
Florida State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Wyoming 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Purdue 0.1% 2.0 0.0
Total 2.2
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 6.0